Image copyright Daniela Tejada Image caption Matthew Hedges' wife Daniela Tejada said she was ‘elated' after he was pardoned

The pardoning of a British student sentenced to life imprisonment in the United Arab Emirates( UAE) for snooping has been welcomed by the UK government. But the balance of power between the countries is changing.

The imprisonment of Matthew Hedges posed a real dilemma for the UK.

It had to decide whether to stand up to the UAE, a country with which it does PS15bn of trade, or cave in and risk the perception that it is now the junior partner in the relationship.

Its strong response – and the fact Mr Hedges can now return home – is testament to the UK's diplomatic weight; this time the UAE flinched.

But the UAE's continued insistence that the Durham PhD student is “1 00% a secret service operative” – a claim Mr Hedges denies – marks a significant shift after a century of UK supremacy in the countries' relationship.

A clear danger

The UAE is clearly not Iran, which continues to detain UK nationals on similar charges including Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe; it is a close and trusted partner.

But in the case of Mr Hedges, the UK has been reminded that the UAE's de facto leader, Abu Dhabi's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan( MBZ ), is no pushover. He is used to getting his own way.

Image copyright EPA/ DANIELA TEJADA Image caption Matthew Hedges was incarcerated in the UAE for spying – a charge he denies

Unlike his counterpart in Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman( MBS ), MBZ is a strategic thinker. He has stayed very close to US President Donald Trump, but has also developed his relationship with both Russia and China.

The UK is in danger of losing its favoured status in the UAE unless it can demonstrate that it is both a useful and reliable ally.

There are deep historical ties between the UK and the families governing the seven emirates, but the specific features of the relationship has changed over the years.

The economic power that came with the the arrival of oil fund has allowed the UAE's leaders to build new military and economic relationships.

Today, it remains the case that a defining principle of the relations with the UK is that Britain – along with the US and France – guarantees the UAE's security against external and internal threats.

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