Moscow believes its leader, ex-spy master Vladimir Putin, can extract major concessions from President Donald Trump when the two men meet for the first time next week, European officials tell The Daily Beast.
The officials say their intelligence indicates Putin thinks he can outmaneuver Trump at the G-2 0 summit, playing on promises of cooperation on regions like counterterrorism to win concessions like a reduction in the raft of sanctions against Russia.
” When you fulfill Russia, don't dedicate anything away for free ,” one Western official alerted, echoing the fears of many European diplomats ahead of next week's Trump-Putin meeting on the fringes of the G-2 0 in Germany.
Their mistrusts highlight concern that Trump's inexperience and Putin's ability to flatter will slowly degrade the U.S. confederation with Europe over hour, and boosting Moscow back to near-superpower status while extracting no changes to its aggressive, expansionist Russian behavior.
Trump's administration has been dogged by investigations conducted by Moscow's calculated campaign to influence the 2016 presidential elections in Trump's favor. Before he became chairwoman, Trump fawned over the ” real leader”in the Kremlin who he hoped would become his “best friend,” and couldn't quite make up his mind whether he had ever gratified Putin.
In the White House, Trump has been reluctant to publicly blame Russia for the election hacking, while proving no such reticence in publicly rebuking NATO friends for not expending enough in their own defense.
” If Russia hacked, if Russia did anything having to do with our election I want to know about it ,” he told NBC on May 11, despite his own Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats telling lawmakers on the same day that” only Russia's senior-most officials could have authorized the 2016 U.S. election-focused data stealings and disclosures, based on the scope and sensitivity of the specific objectives .”
That's part of why some European officials remain wary of any rapprochement between Trump and Putin, despite pledges by Pentagon chief Jim Mattis this week to increase resources to protect NATO members–and despite the Trump State Department re-upping sanctions against Moscow over its annexation of Crimea and continued military interference in Ukraine.
” There's definitely some anxiety overseas. They are worried about a bargain that may be hit in the session on the fly ,” told Brookings Institution's Thomas Wright of his conversations with European officials.” Putin is very good at these first sessions. He has an agenda and knows how to maneuver people. If Trump isn't prepared, the longer he stays in the room, the more dangerous it is .”
Putin infamously charmed previous Chairmen George W. Bush and Barack Obama, who responded with overtures to improve relations, only to be disappointed by Russia's invasion of Georgia under Bush, and Crimea and Ukraine in the Obama years.
National Security Adviser Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster told reporters Thursday that no agenda had been set for the meeting, but indicated that Trump would be carrying both carrot and stick.
” Our relationship with Russia is not different from that with any other country in terms of us communicating to them really what our concerns are, which is something we assure problems with the relationship but also opportunities ,” McMaster said in answer to a question from The Daily Beast.
McMaster said Trump had already ordered his staff to find ways” to confront Russia's destabilizing behavior” and deter it, whether it's cyberthreats or” political subversion” here or in Europe.
” Nobody wants a major power war, right ?” he asked rhetorically.
Mattis spoke far more bluntly in Europe Wednesday, slamming Putin's military adventurism at the cost of his own people's prosperity.
” Russia must know both what we stand for and equally, what we will not tolerate ,” he said in remarks to European military officials in Germany.” Their leader building mischief beyond Russian perimeters will not restore their fortunes or rekindle their hope .”
Those stern messages from McMaster and Mattis are the ones European officials hope Trump will take into the meeting with Putin.
” I hear a consistent message from many levels they want to have a existing cooperation with Russia, and work collectively on shared national security interests, but Russia has to earn that relationship by putting its money where its mouth is ,” the Western official told.
The officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the intelligence and the discussions ahead of Trump's international trip-up. The Russian embassy in Washington declined requests for comment.
The Western official said a warming of U.S.-Russian relations wouldn't be a bad thing, because so many key international issues rely on the two major powers talking.
” We require that relationship to work ,” the official said.” It's crucial to what we are trying to achieve in North Korea, Iran, and Syria ,” the official added, namely pressuring North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un to ditch nuclear weapon, pressuring Iran to stay nuclear weapons-free and convincing Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad to step down.
Yet the Trump White House has sent mixed signals, exploring the unilateral reduction of sanctions on Russia earlier this year. A senior administration official said the National Security Council was simply asking State if the sanctions against Russia were hurting U.S. industries more than the latter are hurting Moscow, but the State Department officials who'd crafted the original sanctions were skeptical.
The Guardian reported Thursday that Trump had asked White House officials to draw up a list of diplomatic sweeteners he could offer Putin at the session, but a senior administration official insisted no such petition was attained. The official insisted on anonymity, in order to deny the allegations.
But Trump has remained diffident in his public commentaries about Moscow, even after administration officials concluded Russia was likely aware Syrian regime forces-out were about to fire sarin-laden bombs on its own civilians in May, because Russian military consultants were stationed at the base that launched the attack.
To understand Putin, Trump require seem no further than an unclassified Defense Intelligence Agency report released the coming week, that tells Moscow assures the U.S. as one of its fiercest adversaries.” The Kremlin is persuaded the United States is laying the groundwork for regime change in Russia ,” research reports told, adding that Moscow blames American meddling for a laundry list of woes including the Arab Spring and the overthrow of pro-Putin leaders in Ukraine, and revolutions in Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan.
” He should be ready for Russian expectations that it is a global power who deserves to be treated like an equal in spite of flagrantly transgressing international norms ,” said Mara Karlin, a former senior defense official for the purposes of the Obama and Bush administrations who now teaches at Johns Hopkins-SAIS.
” He should be ready for complained about the European reassurance initiative[ fund to European bolster security ], missile defence in Europe, and the U.S. military's increased focus on European security more broadly ,” she said in an email, harkening back to her own negotiations with Russian officials.
The Trump administration just stepped up its commitment to the European Reassurance Initiative to $4.8 billion next year, which was started by the Obama administration to bolster the defense of NATO allies, especially those in Central and Eastern Europe, after Russia's military action in Crimea and Ukraine. It includes maintaining American troops stationed in countries along Russia's border, a sore subject for Putin.
” Both are masters in the dark arts of misrepresentation, misdirection, and nationalist symbolism ,” said former Obama defense official Derek Chollet in an email to The Daily Beast.” The obvious card Putin plays is to offer something on ISIS and Syria. But what does he demand in return? Lifting sanctions? Pulling troops out of the Baltics? And does Trump take the bait ?”
And will Trump dishonor Putin publicly over U.S. election interference, as he just dishonor tiny Gulf ally Qatar over alleged terrorist fund.” Or does he agree with Putin that it is a hoax ?” Chollet said.
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