To understand why a Trump-Russia connection matters, we need to look past Trump's tweets, possible collusion and the Mueller investigation, and ask:” why is Russia a threat to the United States ?”
In a post-9/ 11 world where the United States emerged from the Cold War as the conqueror against the Soviet Union, the view of many Americans is that Russia is a defeated and defanged former adversary. But is that true? As we witnessed in the 2016 general elections, Russian intent and success in interfering in the election remains centre stage. But was Russia's 2016 effort to influence and/ or disrupt the U.S. election an isolated act? Or, as Mitt Romney suggested in 2012, is Russia” our number 1 geopolitical foe” that will” fight for every cause for the world's worst performers .”
A pattern of Russian aggression can be drawn starting with its 2008 invasion and occupation of Georgia. It is a pattern that adds context to Russia's 2016 election interference campaign. Once we examine that pattern, we ensure a picture of intensifying Russian aggression.
August 2008 — During the Beijing Olympics, Russia invades Georgia, an occupation that continues today.
June 2010 — The FBI arrests 10 “illegals,” some of whom were receiving messages from Moscow,” to search and develop ties in policymaking circles in U.S .”
October 2012 — The FBI charges 11 with” illegally exporting high-tech microelectronics from the United States to Russian military and intelligence agencies .”
March 2014 — Russia annexes Crimea from Ukraine, and vetoes a U.S.-backed UN Security Council resolution calling for the” territorial integrity of Ukraine” is vetoed by Russia. Reports suggest that Russia is attempting to hide casualties from Donbas.
March 2014 — Malaysian Airline flight 77 is shot down over Ukraine, killing all 289 crews and passengers. The Dutch Safety Board( DSB) concludes that airliner was shot down by a Buk surface-to-air missile launched from pro-Russian separatist-controlled province in Ukraine, and then returned after the shoot-down carrying one less missile. In 2015, Malaysia, a member of UN Security Council, introduced a resolution to create a tribunal to analyse the accident. The resolve was vetoed by Russia.
September 2015 — Russian military forces arrive in Syria and continue to back Bashar al-Assad who has used barrel bombs and chemical weapons to kill civilians. Russia has increasingly been using “contractors” to subsistence and fight for Assad in Syria and in 2018 several were killed in clash with U.S. forces.
April 2016 — The Japan Air Self-Defense Force( JASDFT) scrambled its fighter jets 1,168 periods in fiscal year 2016, 301 periods in response to Russian military aircraft–numbers that are near Cold War levels.
April 2016 — Russian fighter jets make aggressive low pass at the USS Cook, a Navy destroyer operating in the Baltic Sea. This is the second day the USS Cook was targeted by fighter jets while operating in the Baltic Sea, when in 2014 Russian forces carried out a simulated rocket attack on the destroyer.
November 2016 — Russia attempts to interfere in U.S. general elections which, according to a 2017 U. S. intelligence community assessment, found that” Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered an influence campaign in 2016 aimed at providing the US presidential election. Russia's goals were to undermine public religion in the US democratic process, belittle Secretary Clinton, and harm her electability and potential presidency .”
April 2017 — Russia's unveils newest Arctic military base known as the” Arctic Trefoil .” The base is latest addition to Russia's effort to monitor waters off its Arctic coast and devotes it a permanent presence in the region backing its territorial claims to the North Pole. The focus on the Arctic by Russia coincides with an increase of military drills in the Arctic including flying jets towards the United States and even conducting a submarine ballistic missile launch.
2018–13 Russians and three companies were indicted by special counseling Bob Mueller for a long-running scheme to criminally interfere with the 2016 U.S. general elections.
2018–Estonia, a member of NATO and the EU, reveals that it has arrested and convicted 10 Russian snoops.
– In 2017, a video is released of a spy swap between Estonia and Russia.
2018–Russia launchings new RS-2 8 Sarmat ICBM
– In announcement of the missile launch by President Putin a video was demonstrated with warheads falling on an region resembling the Tampa Bay region of Florida.
2018 Attempted poisoning of a former Russian intelligence officer in the U.K.
– Prime Minister Theresa May said it was ” highly likely” that Moscow was responsible for poisoning former Russian double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia.
– May said that the poison used to target both Scripals was from the Russian-made nerve agent group novichok.
2018–Russia' s UN Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia declares that if the U.S. ten-strikes Russian troops in Syria he cannot exclude war between Washington and Moscow.
2018–Russian Su-2 7 fighter jet performs an “unprofessional” intercept of a U.S. Navy P-8 surveillance plane flying in international airspace over the Baltic Sea.
This chain of events, much of it predating the Mueller investigation, uncovers a pattern of escalation by Russia, peaking with Russia's decision to immediately coping with the United States in 2016. It is a trend that both President Bush and Obama's administrations failed to slow, and it is a trend that will continue as long as Trump refuses to even speak ill of Vladimir Putin.
Russia still categorizes the United States as its main adversary. We need a policy that acknowledges the threat they pose , not one that rewards them by avoiding confrontation. It is a time to consider Romney's warning in a new lighting and to prioritize Russia as a serious threat. We need a policy that directs the military and intelligence community to see, deter, and destroy any actions aimed at destabilise the United States. Without such a policy, there is no reason to believe that Russia's continued aggressivenes and expansion will abate on its own.
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