Unstable quartet of Trump, Putin, Xi and Merkel faces chore of tackling crisis that couldnt have come at worst time
Leaders of the worlds 20 biggest economic powers are about to gather in Hamburg for a two-day summit as they mull whether they should still look to the US for global leadership.
The summit, ostensibly about financial stability, could mark the moment of the USs formal abdication as the worlds pre-eminent power. The chore of leadership will be seen to be passed not to a single successor a reluctant China is not ready but to a new unstable quartet of Donald Trump, Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and Angela Merkel.
This contest for world leadership could not come at a worse hour. Too many suns are flashing red on the global dashboard: climate change, North Korea, world trade, Ukraine, mass migration and discord in the Gulf. Yet the quartet comes to the summit, starting on Thursday evening, with most varied aims.
Merkel, the serene host, had planned to use it to lift the worlds gaze to the long-term challenge posed by migration from an increasingly inhabited and youthful Africa but instead detects herself firefighting.
She will gratify Trump on Thursday evening in its endeavour to reacquaint him with her plan for Africa and to test how far he is willing to be more malleable than he was at the G7 , notably on climate change. Merkel is not keen on being leader of the liberal west, describing such labels as grotesque and choosing to be seen in the constant company of the French chairwoman, Emmanuel Macron, to dilute the impression of German predominance of Europe.
But she also knows she can play considerate host merely so far when she satisfies Trump. Martin Schulz, her social Democratic challenger for chancellor in Septembers election is looking for a chink in her electoral armour, and believes he has found one by being more strident in his criticism of Trump. Polls demonstrate “were not receiving” downside to being rude about Trump: some 80% of Germans have no or little confidence in his ability to be a force-out for good in the world, according to a recent Pew Research poll.
Trump in turn continues to assault the German trade surplus, ridicule climate change, mull curbs on German steel imports and insist global politics is a Darwinian battle in which each leader must think first and merely of their national interest.
The US president even appeared to be spoiling for a row with his hosts. The US made some of the worst trade bargains in world history. Why should we continue these deals with countries that do not help us, he wrote on Twitter on Wednesday morning.
Merkel has been equally firm in her answer, saying that anyone who believes that the problems of this world can be solved with isolationism and protectionism is making a terrible mistake. She will be able to back those terms up by pointing to the signing of a free trade bargain between Japan and the EU, a signal that the free trading world will hold to its faith and, if necessary, work around the US.
She also intends to emphasise her claim that the rest of the world is more determined than ever to build the Paris climate change pact a success despite Trumps announcement of US withdrawal.
Trump will be unconcerned if he is outnumbered since it will only deepen his narration of America as a victim, a tale that works with his political base. His focus will be on his meeting with Vladimir Putin on Friday.
Sir Malcolm Rifkind, the former British foreign secretary, likened the event to two alpha males prowling around one another, acknowledging the health risks outcome kept him awake at night. It is a huge problem that Putin cannot predict how Trump is going to behave, he said, adding: That is because Trump does not know how he is going to behave.
No agreement is expected on Ukraine, but on Syria Trump is likely to signal that the fate of Assad is of little fear after the defeat of Isis.
But any kind of concessions to Moscow will be seen in the context of Trumps strange inability to call out Russian interference in the US general elections. To dwell on Russian meddling hazards delegitimising his victory, yet the controversy has left him powerless to seek the policy with Moscow he once intended.
Putin will want a signal that he is seen as a legitimate player in world politics by Trump. He will also want Trump to show he disapproves of the US Senate voting to extend sanctions against Russia.
Trumps meeting with Putin may not end up being the most-watched event in Hamburg, however. After North Koreas announcement on Tuesday that it had successfully tested its first intercontinental ballistic missile, Trumps planned huddle with Xi is likely to be a lot frostier than their first encounter in April.
His faith in China to act tough with North Korea appears to have evaporated and before the summits opening, he will meet with Shinzo Abe, of Japan, and Moon Jae-in, of South Korea. Trump is sure to ventilate his annoyance at Chinas refusal to cut off energy supplies to North Korea, a move China dreads would prompt a mass exodus. If there was a simple solution, it would have been tried by now.
Yet Xi is not at this summit to act as a bystander. He has marked himself out as an friend to Merkel, emphasizing how much he agrees with her on free trade and climate change. He will advise the US to show restraint on North Korea, and even if he has lost the ear of Washington, he does not believe the US will act without his agreement.
This may not be the summit for him to try to fill the USs shoes, but the moment is coming.
Read more: www.theguardian.com
